Last week, the Bank of England raised its growth forecast. But two of the Bank`s policymakers voted to cut interest rates, others could follow if growth remains weak and uncertainty over the UK`s longer-term trade relationship with the EU continues. Time is running out for negotiations between Britain and the EU, although we continue to believe that the chances of reaching an agreement are accumulated. But nothing is guaranteed, and as we have learned throughout the Brexit process, there is still room for unexpected surprises «If Parliament finally approves the Johnson deal this week, it would be positive for the mood, but the uncertainty in the meantime will probably be balanced if the markets react to the events and the likelihood that Parliament will have a good vote on the deal.» Rival Bookie Ladbrokes offered odds of 5/2 from the UK for 31 October, i.e. 28% chance, but 2/5 chance of extension, which equates to 71% chance. The Betfair betting exchange offered similar odds. There are 21 former Conservative MPs who have lost or left the whip not to refuse a deal, but who may now vote for the Prime Minister`s agreement (the 22nd is Sam Gyimah, but it is now a Lib Dem). Then there is the delicate issue of internal market accounting. The House of Lords voted overwhelmingly in favour of repealing the controversial clauses of the law that effectively give the government the power to repeal parts of the withdrawal agreement. For now, the government has indicated that it will fight to reinstate these clauses when the bill returns to the House of Commons, and has already indicated that it will introduce another legislation (the Finance Act) that may contain other incendiary kits.
After a brexit deal with the European Union earlier this week, the question remains whether it will be passed by a vote in the House of Commons. So what are the chances that Mr Johnson will fail to pass a withdrawal deal in Parliament like Theresa May before him? «While talks are ongoing, the chances of a No Deal Brexit are shorter than ever, with minimal chances of extending the transition period.» However, 10 DUP MPs have vowed not to support the deal, which could prompt other Conservative MPs to vote with them.